……The country is heavily reliant on oil and food from China: its only major ally accounts for at least 80% of its foreign trade, and perhaps as much as 90%.
“The way to think of it is as a small, economic adjunct to China,” said Smith. But Pyongyang has often shown an astounding indifference to, and even contempt for, Beijing’s support, fearing its dominance. Recently, China poured $350m into building a bridge across the Yalu river to expand trade. It ends in a dirt track on the North Korean side.
With bilateral relations at a low, the North is wooing other countries, including Russia and Japan. Neither seem a realistic alternative, especially given the state of the latter’s economy.
None of this gives one much cause for optimism about the North’s prospects. Yet Frank believes that in the long run the changes the government is introducing may develop a momentum of their own. “They will achieve something and then the whole thing will stagnate, and it will force the leadership to make a decision – and I believe that decision will be genuine, systematic reform. I’m optimistic,” he said.
Lankov and others suggest the government could call a halt to changes at any time as it has in the past. But Frank argues the disastrous attempt at curbing markets through currency reform in 2009 has shown the cost of turning back from change.
“They are riding the tiger. Of course they are afraid of being eaten by it. But at least they are trying,” he said.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/15/-sp-pyongyang-north-korea-kim-jong-un
No comments:
Post a Comment