Wisconsin’s Republican
primary election on Tuesday might turn out to be Donald Trump’s
“Waterloo.” Okay, that’s not a perfect example; a loss wouldn’t stop him
in his tracks, but a defeat in the Badger State would probably stop him
from clinching the Republican nomination.
There are many variables, but the simplified explanation goes like this: if Mr Trump loses Wisconsin and if Ted Cruz picks up a good share of delegates in California’s June 7 primary, then - assuming everyone wins the other states they are expected to win, based on past performances - Mr Trump will fall short of the 1,237 delegates needed to avoid a contested convention.
There are many variables, but the simplified explanation goes like this: if Mr Trump loses Wisconsin and if Ted Cruz picks up a good share of delegates in California’s June 7 primary, then - assuming everyone wins the other states they are expected to win, based on past performances - Mr Trump will fall short of the 1,237 delegates needed to avoid a contested convention.
Moreover, Mr Trump tends to do well in “rust belt” states where plenty of non-college educated white voters (who do not happen to be Christian evangelicals) reside. What is more, Democrats and independents can vote in the Wisconsin primary, which tends to help Mr Trump.
But Mr Trump appears to be on the verge of getting trounced in the state. According to a recent Marquette University Law School poll (which is considered the gold standard in Wisconsin surveys), Mr Cruz has 40 per cent of the vote, Donald Trump has 30 per cent, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich is at 21 per cent.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/02/why-losing-wisconsin-could-cost-donald-trump-the-republican-nomi/