Republicans have said the administration’s executive action on immigration would make it harder for millions of U.S. citizens to find work, or to command a decent wage. Over the last few weeks, many Republicans have leaned on the law of supply and demand to show that the White House’s plans would be disastrous for millions of Americans who are still facing economic hardship.
But an 24-page analysis from the Council of Economic Advisers dismissed the idea entirely, and the millions of illegal immigrants who could qualify for work authorization will have “no impact” at all on the U.S. employment situation.
“Theory suggests that these policy changes would not have an effect on the long-run employment (or unemployment rate),” it said. “Consistent with the theory, much of the academic literature suggests that changes in immigration policy have no effect on the likelihood of employment for native workers.”
It said research on the 1986 immigration reform law “found little evidence of significant changes in labor force participation or employment status.”
“Therefore, in our lower-bound estimate, we assume no impact of deferred action on labor force participation,” it said. In a summer section at the top of the analysis, it said the CEA sees “no impact on the likelihood of employment for U.S.-born workers.”
The CEA’s analysis seemed to be based on the idea that work authorization would only be temporary for these millions of potential workers. The White House action gives them a chance at a three-year work authorization, and CEA said that based on the “academic literature,” it “does not estimate large changes in the labor force as a result of this component of the new actions on immigration.”
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